3D Virtual Worlds Are In Decline
Catching up with the news on 3D Virtual Worlds, has been getting a little depressing lately. Bottom line: they are all down in traffic.
Lets start with some news on the LL/SL front: Linden Lab announced two weeks ago that they bought an interactive fiction company called LittleTextPeople. The small company develops 2D interactive fiction for play on mobile phones from what I can tell. The group will develop new products under the Linden Lab roof, but they will not be associated with Second Life. In other words, Linden Lab is finally diversifying its gaming line up. This is what happens when you hire a game developer as your CEO, you start to develop new games. Not reported anywhere is that one of the 3 developers at LittleTextPeople is Richard Evans, lead AI programmer for The Sims 3 who no doubt worked with LL CEO Rod Humble when he was in charge at EA/Maxis. The other two are Emily Short, writer/programmer of text adventure Galatea, and Andrew Stern co-creator of a really cool experimental 3D interactive game called Façade. Both are available for free.
So from the sounds of it, Linden Lab is looking to get into the mobile app market with interactive fiction. Based on my minimal level of research, the project(s) that LittleTextPeople are working on are pseudo menu driven graphic interactive fiction. (since typing things on a phone/tablet is an annoyance to begin with). Looking forward to seeing what they come up with.
But that is not all from the Linden Lab front. It seems LL has stopped publication of statistics for Second Life. The unanimous consensus is that the reason for no publication is that the numbers are way down.
Lets put these two items into perspective. Linden Lab is diversifying their product line towards mobile apps, while Second Life is dropping in traffic, land sales, etc. Linden Lab is looking to a future without its signature product. I said before that I believe SL will close its doors when it stops being profitable, and we seem to be close to that point it sounds like.
I decided to take a look at other 3DVWs and see how they are doing. IMVU is seeing lower numbers these days too. There Inc is not seeing the huge influx of returning customers it was hoping for when it reopened its doors. It seems that maybe the age of the 3DVW is about up.
Some of the smaller ones are doing OK: NuVera is finally out of beta, and it seems a lot more stable. Avination says they fixed the sim crossing problem for vehicles in OpenSim. InWorldz is now big enough to start holding a conference in Las Vegas. Onverse is still expanding with new lands and content. Despite some small time success, I am not hearing about any new ones lately, not even new OS grids.
What’s driving people away from the big 3D Virtual Worlds? Probably boredom, social networking, and the influx of “free to play” MMORPGs which are learning to incorporate the social aspects that used to be exclusive to 3DVWs.
I’m not expecting a lot of closures though, just the usual 3 or 4 a year. These things have long tails, and can get by for quite a while with loyal fan bases. But the “golden age” is behind us.